Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the political, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an highly split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in universities but scarcely any politicians or advocates are willing to participate with even the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author supports unification or the current situation. They authors two articles that strive for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions range over national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless official who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has possesses important lessons to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
